NEW YORK - The return of protests, tanks and death to the streets of Cairo this week is harrowing. So is the power of the rampant conspiracy theories that cause both Muslim Brotherhood members and their secular opponents to sincerely believe that they are the defenders of Egypt's revolution.
Criticisms of President Mohamed Morsi's power grab and rushed constitutional process are legitimate. So are complaints that the country's secular opposition is poorly organized, lacks majority support and refuses to compromise.
Barring a surprising change in direction, Egypt's experiment with democracy seems to be headed toward failure. The country's flawed constitution will likely be ratified in a referendum on Dec. 15. A frustrated and distrustful opposition will boycott subsequent Parliamentary elections. Mr. Morsi will lead a “soft authoritarian†government similar to that of former President Hosni Mubarak. Small opposition parties will exist, but the Muslim Brother hood's dominance of the state, politics and society will never be in doubt.
U.S. officials - ever eager for stability in the Middle East - will turn a blind eye and establish a “working relationship†with Mr. Morsi.
“I think the impulse of most American administrations is to show up in an Arab country and say, ‘Take me to your leader,' †Nathan J. Brown, a George Washington University professor and leading expert on Egypt, told me in a bleak interview this week. “I don't think we have many alternatives. The United States is not in the position to back a military coup or the opposition.â€
Mr. Brown is correct. Yes, the United States has some economic leverage in Cairo, but in general America remains radioactive in post-Mubarak Egypt. After 40 years of the U.S. backing Egyptian strongmen who made peace with Israel, Washington is hugely mistrusted.
A September 2012 Gallup Poll found that 82 percent of Egyptians opposed the country's government accepting any economic aid from the United States. By comparison, 42 percent of Egyptians surveyed - roughly half that number - opposed the country's peace treaty with Israel.
For those who think more “American leadership†is the answer: a U.S.-backed military coup - which it is doubtful the U.S. could engineer - would radicalize Islamists across the region and be an enormous gift to al Qaeda. Similarly, if Washington openly backs the country's secular opposition, those opponents will be viewed as American stooges and lose popular support.
“A much more effective strategy for the United States is to call for a dialogue between Morsi's government and the opposition behind closed doors,†said Dalia Mogahed, the American scholar who conducted the Gallup survey. “The U.S. coming out publicly on the side of the opposition will be used against them.â€
The only small cause for hope is that Egypt's struggles are not unprecedented. Other countries have undergone agonizing and turbulent transitions as well. Thomas Carothers, an expert on transitions to democracy at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said that what is occurring today in Egypt is typical when a long-disenfranchised group gains power. Distrustful and insular after years of struggles, it is often reluctant to share power and still views itself as deeply vulnerable.
Mr. Carothers said Egypt's struggle mirrors the difficult transition still under way in Bolivia. Seven years after Evo Morales was elected that country's first president of indigenous descent, a tense “fundamental rebalancing of political power†is still playing out in Bolivia. The country's traditional elite and the indigenous movement still struggle to trust each other and sh are power. Bigoted arguments that democracy does not work in the Arab world do not apply in Egypt.
“There is nothing particularly Arab about what is happening,†Mr. Carothers said. “It's not an Islamist issue per se.â€
There is another international comparison that should give the Brotherhood pause, according to Mr. Carothers. South Africa's African National Congress gained a monopoly on power after the country's first post-apartheid elections in 1994. With no viable opposition, the ANC grew increasingly corrupt as opportunistic figures flocked to the only patronage show in town.
“The party just became a self-sustaining machine,†Mr. Carothers said. “People start joining your party out of sheer opportunism.â€
That may not matter to the Brotherhood. Its fear of being forced from power it has finally attained may lead it to become the kind of governing party its members once loathed.
The stark picture painted by Shady Humid, the dire ctor of research at the Brookings Doha Center, in this excellent piece in Foreign Policy this week, may prove to be true. There may be no common vision in Egypt, as Humid argues; there may be no consensus on what the Egyptian nation should be.
If there is a common ground, the surest way to reach it is for there to be more democracy in Egypt, not less. Yes, the flawed draft constitution is likely to be ratified on Dec. 15. But the opposition should not boycott the vote or subsequent legislative elections.
In a best-case scenario, the “no†vote could reach as high as 30 percent, according to Mr. Brown, the George Washington University professor. The opposition could then run in subsequent legislative elections. It would not win a majority, but perhaps it would win enough seats to be a viable opposition to the Brotherhood. Two groups that loathe each other would be forced t o sit in Parliament together.
Time and a desire to win elections might make them compromise and save Egypt's fading chances at democracy.
David Rohde is a columnist for Reuters, former reporter for The New York Times and two-time winner of the Pulitzer Prize. His forthcoming book, “Beyond War: Reimagining American Influence in a New Middle East†will be published in March 2013.
