Environmental Woes Could Reverse Global Development

Climate change and other environmental disasters could put 3.1 billion people into extreme poverty by 2050, if no significant steps are taken, says an annual United Nations report on the state of global development.

“While environmental threats such as climate change, deforestation, air and water pollution, and natural disasters affect everyone, they hurt poor countries and poor communities most,” noted the report’s authors.

Though the world has become fairer overall, “environmental threats are among the most grave impediments to lifting human development, and their consequences for poverty are likely to be high,” according to the authors.

The 2013 Human Development Report, released last week by the United Nations Human Development Programme, gives both a global snapshot and extensive predictions of the world’s state of development. Since 1990 the report has featured the Human Development Index, a number rouhly based on life expectancy, education and relative income, to compare different countries and regions. This method of comparison has led to the oft-cited top ten countries to live in.

This year’s report, The Rise of the South, looks at the countries that usually lag behind.

“The Industrial Revolution was a story of perhaps a hundred million people, but this is a story of about billions of people,” says Khalid Malik, the report’s lead author in a statement.

Besides the alarming humanitarian risks associated with environmental challenges, the report describes a world that is slowly becoming more equal.

Extreme income poverty has plummeted from 1990, when 43 percent of the globe’s population lived on the equivalent of less than $1.25 a day, to 2008 when 22 percent of the world’s population, or very roughly 1.5 billion people, live at that level of income poverty.

In China alone half a billion people have been lifted out of extreme poverty in that period.

For the first time since the industrial revolution, Brazil, China and India have a roughly equal output to the industrial nations of Europe and North America. By 2030, the authors predict that 80 percent of the world’s middle class will live in what is currently termed the developing world.

However, because of the risk of environmental disasters those gains could be slowed, halted or even reversed in places such as sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, according to the report.

The report highlights a paradox long described by experts: while those nations with the lowest development indexes are often not the polluters, they are bound to suffer more from a warming climate.

The report’s authors cite the impact natural disasters have on developing island states, such as Hurricane Ivan’s devastation of Granada, which led in 2004 to an estimated loss equal to twice its GDP.

The 2011 report, which focused on sustainability and eqity, looked at the effects global warming could have on agricultural production, a major source of income for many.

Because of environmental challenges, development â€" not just income levels, but also education levels and life expectancy â€" would see a sharp decline, especially in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia.

“Climate change is already exacerbating chronic environmental threats, and ecosystem losses are constraining livelihood opportunities, especially for poor people,” wrote the authors.

IHT Quick Read: March 18

NEWS Europe’s surprising decision early Saturday to force bank depositors in Cyprus to share in the cost of the latest euro zone bailout set off increasing outrage and turmoil in Cyprus on Sunday and fueled fears that the trouble will spread to countries like Spain and Italy. Liz Alderman reports from Nicosia, Cyprus, and Landon Thomas Jr. from London.

The United States has effectively canceled the final phase of a Europe-based missile defense system that was fiercely opposed by Russia and cited repeatedly by the Kremlin as a major obstacle to cooperation on nuclear arms reductions and other issues. DavidM. Herszenhorn reports from Moscow, and Michael R. Gordon from Washington.

With France planning to start withdrawing its troops from Mali next month, Western and African officials are increasingly concerned that the African soldiers who will be relied on to continue the campaign against militants linked to Al Qaeda there do not have the training or equipment for the job. Eric Schmitt reports from Nema, Mauritania.

In his first Sunday appearance from the papal apartment overlooking St. Peter’s Square, Pope Francis charmed a huge crowd by infusing the message of the Gospel with personal recollections and a smattering of humor. Elisabetta Povoledo reports from Vatican City.

Britian’s finance minister is expected to continue with his austerity plans when the budget is announced Wednesday, despite the failure of the policies to improve the economy to date. Julia Werdigier reports from London.

By debuting a Spanish-language edition of Forbes in Spain this month, SpainMedia is swimming against a tide that has driven many other Spanish media entrepreneurs out of business amid a recession and credit squeeze. Raphael Minder reports from Madrid.

EDUCATION Some analysts say that foreign shools in the Gulf, locally funded but serving student bodies that are still dominated by foreigners, seem like bubbles cut off from local culture and society. Sara Hamdan reports from Dubai.

ARTS Hella Jongerius researched an elegant palette of carefully chosen shades of blue, brown, gray, aubergine and white for new business-class cabins in KLM’s long haul Boeing 747-400 jets. Alice Rawsthorn writes from Berlin.

Toyo Ito, a Japanese architect who broke from Modernism and designed a library that survived his country’s catastrophic 2011 earthquake, was awarded his profession’s top honor, the Pritzker Architecture Prize, on Sunday. Robin Pogrebin reports.

SPORTS Marcel Hirscher of Austria raised the Crystal Globe as Alpine ski racing’s overall World Cup champion on Sunday, becoming the first man to win consecutive titles since his countryman Stephan Eberharter 10 years ago. Brian Pinelli reports from Lenzerheide, Switzerland.

The promise that the new rubber compound in the Pirelli tires would mix up the racing order came true, as drivers in the Australian Grand Prix event on Sunday made several pit stops and strategy and tire wear came into play. Brad Spurgeon reports from Melbourne.

Rio Ferdinand, who has batted injuries for years, is returning to national soccer team duty with England, and that won’t make Alex Ferguson’s job any easier with Manchester United. Rob Hughes writes from London.