The Phantom Province in China\'s Economy

BEIJING â€" China has a “phantom province” pumping out nearly 5.8 trillion renminbi (about $925 billion) in gross domestic product last year, about equivalent to the output of its richest province, Guangdong, Chinese media reported this week.

How so

Deliberately inflated figures from local officials are largely to blame, domestic media reported, as officials seek promotion for delivering the high growth demanded by the state. And the problem of systemic exaggeration in the economy is growing, not shrinking, as the country becomes richer and is increasingly integrated into the global economy.

The world is accustomed to remarkable growth from China, which is now the world’s second-largest economy after zooming up the list to overtake Germany and Japan, and is projected by some to challenge the economic dominance of the United States. And other nations have grown accustomed to looking toChina to drive global growth with those high numbers. As Yi Gang, the deputy governor of the People’s Bank of China, the central bank, said at the World Economic Forum in Davos last month, “I think China’s growth rate will be about 8 percent this year.”

Yet back home, officials are faced with figures that can be off the mark by millions, billions or trillions of renminbi, meaning no one is entirely sure what’s going on. (The government in Beijing has its own way of dealing with the problem: the incoming prime minister, Li Keqiang, once reportedly said financial data in China was “man-made” and he relied instead on three indicators: electricity consumption, rail cargo and bank loans.)

This week, Chinese media reported widely on China’s “phantom province,” the GDP excess that resulted when the economic growth fig! ures from 31 provinces, municipalities and regions were added up and compared to the different, national GDP figure that the government uses. In 2012, the discrepancy reached a remarkable 5.76 trillion renminbi, its biggest ever and the equivalent of the output of Guangdong province, itself an economic powerhouse, the media said.

For 2012, the national GDP figure is estimated to be nearly 52 trillion renminbi (about $8.3 trillion,) while the provincial total was nearly 58 trillion (about $9.3 trillion.)

“Media exposes total GDP of all provinces exceeds national GDP by over 5 trillion renminbi,” (the exact figure was 5.76 trillion,) a headline announced in the 21CN News.

The gap is getting bigger, fast: in 2009, total provincial GDP was nearly 2.7 trillion more than national GDP; in 2010 it was more than 3 trillion; in 2011 it was 4.6 trillion, the Bijing News reported.

In a chain of exaggeration that begins at the village or county level, the figures pile up until they overreach any possible national total, the articles indicate.

The cause of the problem “GDP ‘achievement,’” said an article in the China Youth Daily, which is run by the Communist Party’s Youth League, referring to the system whereby officials are promoted for achieving high growth rates so they deliberately exaggerate.

The government has tried to stop the mendacity by launching investigations and threatening to punish offenders, but the problem is stubborn, the article said.

The solution

“Only painful and determined reforms can change the achievement-based evaluation system,” the article said, including: sustained checking of officials’ reporting, increasing the rights of ordinary people to evaluate officials, taking away local officials’ sole responsibility for GDP growth, the environment, public services, people’s prosperity an! d sustain! able development.

Hillary 2013 Gives Way to \'Hillary 2016\'

WASHINGTON â€" Hillary Clinton woke up today with no place to go â€" at least in an official capacity.

This must have been something of a shock to someone who has lived in the public arena round the clock for more than 30 years, who has traveled nearly one million miles to 112 countries in just four years, who last week logged more speeches, interviews and farewell gatherings than many presidents and most secretaries of state have done in their last days in office.

But it’s unlikely that newly minted private citizen Hillary Rodham Clinton, the most popular political public figure in the United States (she enjoyed a stunning 67 percent approval rating in the most recent poll) and one of the most admired leaders in the world, will really leave the public stage.

In my latest Female Factor column, I write about the very male, very white Obama administration Mrs. Clinton leaves behind.

As the world knows, many peope think Mrs. Clinton can virtually have the Democratic presidential nomination in 2016 if she wants it. These are very, very early days, of course, but it’s still a good bet â€" at least right now â€" that she will get the chance to crack the highest glass ceiling and run for the presidency of the United States.

For now, she might kick back for a minute or two, let her mind unwind and her head recover, but she’s already planning to write a memoir and will surely hop on a plane to globetrot for her signature cause, the advancement of women and girls worldwide.

It’s unlikely, as some opponents might wish, that she will fade into the background, as some former presidents and public figures do once their time in office is up.

But then few of them have had such a sendoff. Mrs. Clinton’s last days in office were a triumphant march, a command performance.

The media gorged on her every move and every word. While policy experts and columnists â€" including here on Rendezvous â€" pointed out that she had no single overarching achievement as secretary of state, most gave her credit for her support of pro-democracy movements in the Arab Spring, her pivotal opening to Asia and strong stands on China, and, of course, her indefatigable work to help women and girls around the world.

The adulation at times knew few bounds. The new issue of Newsweek magazine put her on the cover with a headline that some people found premature, “The Most Powerful Woman in American History.” And Mika Brzezinski, the co-anchor of MSNBC’s “Morning Joe,” said, “Where would all of us be without her”

Overall, media and expert assessments of her tenure at the State Department have been measured, fair and positive. Few questioned her legacy and high stature among secretaries of state.

In the past week, there was her high-wire act before the Senate and House hearings on the kiling of the U.S. ambassador to Libya at Benghazi; her love-fest interview with President Obama on “60 Minutes”; her series of interviews with the five major American networks; and her “Global Townterview” (above and here) on some of the world’s top television networks. She fielded dozens of questions from her seat at Washington’s Newseum. The questions were mostly admiring.

But Mrs. Clinton has long been a global celebrity.

“She is a bold and inspiring woman who has been a messenger and an actor of the great geopolitical challenges of today,” said Veronique Morali, the president of the Paris-based Women’s Forum for the Economy and Society.

“During her tenure at the State Department, promoting equal opportunities for women around the world became a mainstream and even a priority agenda item, one that U.S. e! mbassies ! and policy-makers could no longer ignore,” Ms. Morali said in an email.

Here in Washington, Mrs. Clinton is, second only to President Obama, the Democratic Party’s top political commodity. In the past week, progressive advocacy groups like Emily’s List, Planned Parenthood and Human Rights Campaign took advantage of the Hillary Farewell Tour to send out promotional emails asking liberal-leaning voters to sign online thank-you cards to Mrs. Clinton.

By week’s end over 170,000 people had responded, according to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. The thank-you signatures for Mrs. Clinton will serve to build the email lists and databases of liberal organizations and the Democratic Party.

Her last hour as secretary of state came on Friday afternoon at her home ground at the State Department. In thick eyeglasses (which she has been wearing since she suffered a concussion and blood clot) and bundled up in a trademark jacket, she spoke standing at the top of a stairway, leanin on a banister, appearing casual and at ease, by turns cheerful and forceful, upbeat and sentimental.

Then she stepped down and plunged into the thick, clamoring crowd. The shout went up, “Hillary in 2016!”

Right then and there, surrounded by fans and eagerly pressing the flesh and mouthing thanks, she found herself at the center of a scene out of a political convention. It didn’t seem so much a final goodbye as the beginning of a new campaign.

Trouble With \'Like\'

We continue our tour of After Deadline’s favorite grammar gaffes. (In case you missed it, we already covered who vs. whom and agreement problems.) This week: the many misuses of “like.”

As a starting point, here’s the explanation from our sadly neglected stylebook entry:

like. The word plays many grammatical roles. The one that raises a usage issue is its sense as a preposition meaning similar to. In that guise it can introduce only a noun or a pronoun: He deals cards like a riverboat gambler. If in doubt about the fitness of a construction with like, mentally test a substitute preposition (with, for example): He deals cards with a riverboat gambler. If the resulting sentence is coherent, like is properly used.

But when like is used to introduce a full cause â€" consisting of subject and verb â€" it stops being a preposition and becomes a conjunction. Traditional usage, preferred by The Times, does not accept that construction: He is competitive, like his father was. Make it as his father was, or simply like his father. If the as construction (although correct) sounds stiff or awkward, try the way instead: He is competitive, the way his father was.

In other cases, if like fails the preposition test, as if may be needed: She pedaled as if [not like] her life depended on it.

When like is used correctly as a preposition, it faces another test. The items linked by like must be parallel, and therefore comparable. Do not write Like Houston, August in New York is humid. That sentence compares August to Houston, not what its author meant. Make it Like Houston, New York is humid in August.

And here are a few of our most recent slips:

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This month, in the midst of tense labor negotiations with city teachers and a s! tandoff with a school bus drivers’ union, Mr. Cardozo reported to the courthouse at 111 Centre Street in Manhattan for jury service, just like so many other New Yorkers do. And just like so many others do, he waited.

Avoid this use of “like” as a conjunction introducing a full clause. Easy fixes in this case: make it “like so many other New Yorkers,” without the verb; or use the conjunction “as” instead of “like.”

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Or, if someone begins exercising but then stops, does the brain revert to its former state, much like unused muscles slacken

Again, use “as” or perhaps “the way” in place of “like.”

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[Caption] In the Sierra Nevada, Lake Tahoe sits on the California-Nevada border. A bistate compact made in 1969, and updated in 1987, clamped down on runaway development, with the result that much of the infrastructure looks like it did in the early ’70s, when Elvis Presley wasa regular.

Ditto. Make it “the way it did …”

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Yet, like always, Armstrong could not help fighting. …

A different problem. In careful usage, the preposition “like” should be followed by a noun or pronoun â€" not an adverb, as here. Simply make it “as always.”

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[Caption] When people and cars share streets, like on Ninth Avenue, in Manhattan, a honk can be essential.

Ditto. Make it “as on Ninth Avenue …” or rephrase.

 
In a Word

This week’s grab bag of grammar, style and other missteps, compiled with help from colleagues and readers.

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Mr. Thompson, a Democrat and a member of the centrist Blue Dog Coalition, supports banning the kind of assault weapons used in the Connecticut shootings. … On Thursday, gun rights advocates here rejected any attempts to restrict access to high-powered guns.

In the latest debate over gun laws, e! ven the t! erms used to describe firearms are sometimes in dispute, as we have reported. Whenever possible, be specific. A broad, ill-defined term like “high-powered guns” is too vague to be of much use.

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His comments, recounting a laundry list of past Soviet violations, including the 1979 invasion in Afghanistan and the 1981 imposition of martial law in Poland, angered Soviet delegates.

The cliché doesn’t add anything; just say “list” or perhaps “long list.”

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While losing the popular vote in five of the last six presidential elections, the flaws of this mentality have become apparent.

A dangler; the flaws were not “losing the popular vote.” Rephrase.

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JERUSALEM â€" Israel’s departing defense minister, Ehud Barak, said that the Pentagon had prepared sophisticated blueprints or a surgical operation to set back Iran’s nuclear program should the United States decide to attack â€" a statement that was a possible indication that Israel might have shelved any plans for a unilateral strike, at least for now.

This lead of this news article is missing a time element. Said when

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The court rejected the Justice Department’s argument in brief but scathing language.

“An interpretation of ‘the recess’ that permits the president to decide when the Senate is in recess would demolish the checks and balances inherent in the advice-and-consent requirement, giving the president free rein to appoint his desired nominees at any time he pleases, whether that time be a weekend, lunch, or even when the Senate is in session and he is merely displeased with its inaction,” wrote Judge David B. Sentelle. “This cannot be the law.”

The stylebook calls for naming all three judges on a panel in a story about a court ruling; this story named only the judge! who wrot! e the opinion. (The online version rightly linked to the ruling, which identifies all three judges, but that doesn’t help the print reader.)

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A brand new conservative group calling itself Americans for a Strong Defense and financed by anonymous donors is running advertisements urging Democratic senators in five states to vote against Chuck Hagel, President Obama’s nominee to be secretary of defense, saying he would make the United States “a weaker country.”

“Brand-new” should be hyphenated, according to the stylebook and the dictionary.

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Any list of the leading novelists of the 19th century, writing in English, would almost surely include Charles Dickens, Thomas Hardy, Herman Melville, Nathaniel Hawthorne and Mark Twain.

“Writing in English” is awkwardly detached from what it describes.

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[Caption] Boris Sandler, left, editor of the newspaper Forverts, with his associate editor, Itzik Gttesman, are preparing to unveil a revamped Yiddish Web site on Feb. 4.

The subject is singular and the verb should be, too. The prepositional phrase “with his associate editor …” does not make the subject plural.

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In a study published in October scientists asked heel-striking recreational runners to temporarily switch to forefoot striking, they found that greater forces began moving through the runners’ lower backs; the pounding had migrated from the runners’ legs to their lumbar spines, and the volunteers reported that this new running form was quite uncomfortable.

We needed a semicolon or (better) a period after “striking,” not merely a comma. Also, a comma after “October” would help.

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The share sale, which was begun on Monday, is the second time in less than a year that Goldman has reduced its holdings in the lender after acquiring its stake before the Chinese bank’s i! nitial pu! blic offering in 2006.

A sale of shares is not a time, so this phrasing is awkward. Also, “second time in less than a year” is maddeningly imprecise.

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Instead of returning to a haven, it is far likelier that at least one family member if not more would feel compelled by duty to enforce Pashtun tribal law and kill her to regain the family’s standing in the community, women’s advocates say.

Another dangler; there is nothing for “returning” to go with.

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The divisive matter of whether ultra-Orthodox Jews and Arab citizens should go into the military or perform national service, punted by Mr. Netanyahu last summer, is also looming.

Considering our global audience, we should remember that American sports jargon is no slam-dunk for comprehension.

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Williams said the one miss [of a free throw for the Nets] would bother him more than the six he made.

Why would the six he made bother him t all Rephrase.

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The family receives $1,442 monthly in disability for Rusty and Brianna, and their rent is partly subsidized.

“Their” seems to refer to Rusty and Brianna, presumably not what we meant. Rephrase.

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Fresh from persuading a $5 billion pension fund in Chicago to divest from companies that make firearms, the city’s mayor, Rahm Emanuel, on Thursday urged the chief executives of two major banks to stop financing companies “that profit from gun violence.”

In precise usage, the construction is “divest oneself of,” not “divest from.”

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But given how so many Romney supporters had fled town, observations about the brittle state of current statesmanship were as plentiful as the pigs in blankets, deviled eggs and corn beef canapés.

It’s “corned beef,” not “corn beef.”

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The byzantine politics, scale and bureaucracy of the Paris O! pera is worlds away from Mr. Millepied’s professional experience.

“Are,” not “is.”

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[Caption] Bobby Leone, a Gerritsen Beach, Brooklyn, resident, worked on his home, damaged from Hurricane Sandy, with heat only from a couple small space heaters.

Make it “a couple of small space heaters.”