Total Pageviews

What the \'Swing Counties\' Tell Us About the Future of American Politics

WASHINGTON - In the eight states where President Barack Obama and Gov. Mitt Romney competed fully there were 94 so-called swing counties that voted for George W. Bush in 2004 and the Democrat in 2008; in November they split, Obama winning 48 and Romney 46.

There are two reasons that was insufficient for the Republicans. One, Obama won a convincing victory four years ago and to win this time, Romney had to win most of these counties.

Second, many of the counties that the Republican nominee carried were smaller, often rural, outlets in Wisconsin and Iowa. Actually 80 percent of the swing counties that Romney won this time were in those two states and made only a small dent in Obama's clear winning margin in both states.

The Democrat, on the other hand, carried more populous swing counties in Florida, Ohio, Virginia and Colorado. He swept all the swing counties in Colorado and won the vast majority in Virginia, Florida and Ohio. In my latest Letter from Washington, I dissect the results in eight key swing counties.

Hometown ties didn't help the Republican ticket, although these weren't swing venues. Rock County, Wisconsin, where former vice presidential candidate Paul Ryan resides, went for Mr. Obama 61 to 38 percent, Romney lost both Oakland County, Michigan, where he grew up, 54 to 46 percent, and Middlesex County Massachusetts, where he has spent most of his adult life, 63 to 36 percent.

Mr. Obama carried Chicago's Cook County, his Illinois home, 74 to 24 percent.