DAVOS, Switzerland â€" Henry A. Kissinger has never shied from unvarnished political assessments and during an hour-long address to the World Economic Forum on Thursday, the former American secretary of state delivered a list of sober warnings about rising threats on the world stage.
Executives and policymakers here, fixated on economic gyrations and the environment for deals, sat riveted as the elder statesman, speaking in his trademark slow and sonorous tone, warned of political threats to the world order. And a nuclear Iran, Mr. Kissinger said, poses perhaps the biggest near-term threat to stability and diplomacy in the Middle East.
The United States and other Western countries have accused Iran of developing a nuclear weapons program, while Iran has insisted its nuclear program is peaceful. Mr. Kissinger urged President Barack Obama to give negotiations with Iran a chance. At the same time, he said, Iran must ask itself whether a failure to build nuclear capability is truly a challenge to he Iranian national identity.
A nuclear Iran “is approaching,†he told the gathering. So in a few years, people will have to come to a determination of how to react, or the consequences of non-reaction,†he said.
Unilateral intervention by Israel would be a “desperate last resort,†Mr. Kissinger added. But if Iran continues to use negotiations simply to buy time to advance its nuclear program, “the consequences will be extremely dangerous.†Surrounding Arab and Gulf states, which already have nuclear power programs, could make nuclear weapons their arsenal of choice.
“If a nuclear conflict arises,†Mr. Kissinger said, “that would be a turning point for human history. So negotiations must move forward.â€
The tension is building as conflicts elsewhere in the region rage. The war in Syria remains a challenge for Western powers. He called on the United States and Russia to work together to resolve the crisis, but to step gingerly. If the outside world interve! nes militarily, he said, “it will be in the middle of a vast ethnic conflict; and if it doesn’t intervene militarily, it will be caught in a humanitarian tragedy.â€
A number of outcomes are possible in Syria, he added, including President Assad remaining in power, a victory by Sunni rebels, or the emergence of a loose coterie of ethnic groups. Whatever the outcome, “the more the outside world competes, the worse it gets,†he said referring to Russia and the West, who have often worked at cross purposes.
Turning to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Mr. Kissinger said that while a consensus has developed on a desired outcome, “no one has been able to determine how to get there.â€
Only one thing was clear, he added. Any settlement would “require significant sacrifices on the Israeli side from the position they now hold,†he said. And “there has to be some reciprocity from the Arab side other than uttering the word ‘peace.’â€
As for the festering European crisis, M.. Kissinger advocated a political solution if an economic one ultimately stumbles. “The issue that needs to be resolved is the relationship between austerity and growth. And if there is no growth, how the economic void will be
filled,†he said. In diplomacy terms, the question is the extent to which countries with money are willing to help those that are still flagging.
“If the answer is negative†then the idea of European unity is called into question, he said. Europe may need to shift its approach to unity through an economic construction to one of “political construction,†he said.
At the end of the day, he added, “Europe should be maintained as an idea even if the ideal solution does not emerge.â€
